NASA ARSET Estimating Biomass using GEDI
The Story
Welcome to another exciting episode of the NASA Live Video Podcast: "NASA ARSET: Estimating Biomass using GEDI."In this episode, we venture deep into the forests of Earth to explore how space-based technology helps us measure our planet's carbon cycle. We focus our attention on NASA's GEDI (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation) mission—a high-resolution spaceborne LiDAR instrument attached to the International Space Station (ISS) that is completely transforming how we estimate forest biomass and structure.
Through the framework of NASA’s Applied Remote Sensing Training (ARSET) program, we break down the core methodologies behind mapping aboveground biomass using GEDI data. We discuss how GEDI's precise laser pulses pierce through dense forest canopies to measure the 3D structure of the Earth's surface, providing scientists with the critical datasets needed to quantify carbon storage, monitor deforestation, and predict habitat biodiversity.
Whether you are an ecologist, a climate scientist, a carbon-accounting professional, or a space enthusiast curious about how NASA tracks environmental health from orbit, this episode offers vital insights into the future of forest monitoring. Subscribe to the NASA Live Video Podcast to stay connected with the frontier of space exploration, remote sensing, and cutting-edge earth science!
Speaker 1: Welcome to this RSET training series, Estimating Biomass and Change
Speaker 1: with JEDI and the obi IAPI. Today is session one
Speaker 1: of our training series and it's focused on estimating biomass
Speaker 1: using JEDI. My name is Erica Portis. I'm a scientist
Speaker 1: at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and I
Speaker 1: focus on the study of terrestrial ecosystems using SAR. I'm
Speaker 1: also an instructor with the RSET program and I will
Speaker 1: be hosting this training. Before we begin today's training, I'll
Speaker 1: say a few quick words about the r SET program.
Speaker 1: The NASA Applied Remote Sensing Training or our SET program,
Speaker 1: offers free trainings on the use of remote sensing and
Speaker 1: model data, along with methods and tools for the global
Speaker 1: science and applications communities. Our trainings are tailored to different
Speaker 1: experience ranging from introductory to intermediate to advanced. We provide
Speaker 1: trainings in several thematic areas including agriculture, climate and resilience, disasters,
Speaker 1: eco conservation, health and air quality, water resources, and wildland fires.
Speaker 1: Our SET trainings are either online or in person, and
Speaker 1: there are two modalities. One is live and in structure.
Speaker 1: Lad like today's training, or the other modality is asynchronous
Speaker 1: and self paced. All trainings are free of charge and
Speaker 1: utilize open source data and software. Some of our trainings
Speaker 1: are delivered in both English and Spanish like this one,
Speaker 1: and all of our trainings have a Spanish presentation available
Speaker 1: a PDF presentation available. So let's start today by providing
Speaker 1: an overview of this training series estimating biomass and change
Speaker 1: with JEDI and the OBIEAPI. What is happening beneath the canopy?
Speaker 1: One fundamental question that many people are interested in is
Speaker 1: forest structure and what is happening beneath the canopy. Now,
Speaker 1: from many traditional satellites, we do not know this because
Speaker 1: optical remote sensing sensors can tell us things about, for example,
Speaker 1: the greenness of the vegetation, but not about the understory
Speaker 1: or the structure. Spaceborne lighter can do this, such as JEDI,
Speaker 1: which measures forest structure across more than twenty billion locations
Speaker 1: on Earth, and you'll learn to use this data how
Speaker 1: to do this in this training. So by the end
Speaker 1: of this training, attendees will be able to identify the
Speaker 1: fundamental characteristics of JEDI data and carbon monitoring data structure, uncertainty,
Speaker 1: and system requirements. Apply methods for estimating biomass and biomass change,
Speaker 1: including the integration of Jedi with Lancet time series and
Speaker 1: calibration with forest inventory data. Evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty
Speaker 1: of biomass estimates using validation data. Use the Obian tools
Speaker 1: and APIs to generate and analyze biomass change products, including
Speaker 1: visualizing results for user defined areas and comparing carbon gains
Speaker 1: to different climate scenarios. And finally, evaluate advantages and disadvantages
Speaker 1: of the footprint level versus gridded level JEDI biomass products
Speaker 1: to determine which data are appropriate for a given use case.
Speaker 1: The prerequisite for this training is the r SET Fundamentals
Speaker 1: of Remote Sense as well as the Spaceborne Lighter for
Speaker 1: monitoring vegetation, structure and biomass using Jedi and this was
Speaker 1: a course from October of twenty twenty five in our
Speaker 1: Set training and below that is a list of suggested trainings.
Speaker 1: This training series consists of two sessions. The first session
Speaker 1: today is focused on estimating biomass using Jedi and the
Speaker 1: second session will be next Thursday, May twenty eighth and
Speaker 1: it will be focused on estimating biomass change with Jedi
Speaker 1: and Thebian API. The homework opens up on May twenty
Speaker 1: eighth and it will be due on June eighteenth. It
Speaker 1: will be posted on the training web page. There will
Speaker 1: be a certificate of completion to participant who attend all
Speaker 1: live sessions and complete the homework assignment by the do date.
Speaker 1: So with that, let's begin with Session one Estimating Biomass
Speaker 1: using Jedi. We have a guest instructor for this training,
Speaker 1: doctor Sean Healey, who's a research ecologist with the US
Speaker 1: Forest Service and US Department of Agriculture. So by the
Speaker 1: end of today's session, participants will be able to identify
Speaker 1: the fundamental characteristics of Jedi data and carbon monitoring, including
Speaker 1: data structure, uncertainty, and system requirements. Explain that Jedi structure
Speaker 1: and how uncertainty is characterized. Demonstrate how Jedi data are
Speaker 1: fused with Lancet time series and calibrate it with forced
Speaker 1: inventory data to estimate biomass change, and finally, apply Jedi
Speaker 1: estimation methods to visualize and generate biomass products for given
Speaker 1: user defined areas of interest. How to ask questions Locate
Speaker 1: the three points on the bottom right a sub menu,
Speaker 1: click on it. A sub many will open and select
Speaker 1: Q and A so window will open and write your
Speaker 1: question in that window and we will address your questions
Speaker 1: at the end of the webinar. Feel free to submit
Speaker 1: your questions throughout this webinar. We'll do our best to
Speaker 1: address as many questions as possible during the live Q
Speaker 1: and A session. Any remaining questions will be answered in
Speaker 1: a Q and A document which will be posted on
Speaker 1: the training website approximately one week after the training. So
Speaker 1: let's get started. This next part is going to be
Speaker 1: presented by doctor Sean Healey. We're very fortunate to have him,
Speaker 1: so welcome doctor Healey.
Speaker 2: Hello, I'm Sean Heally. I am speaking for doctor Jijiang Yang.
Speaker 2: We both work for the USDA four Service, the Inventory
Speaker 2: and Monitoring Program. I am very happy to be with
Speaker 2: you today to talk to you about JEDI. JEDI is
Speaker 2: an acronym. It stands for Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation. It
Speaker 2: is a NASA mission. It's a light our instrument that
Speaker 2: is on the International Space Station. I'll talk a little
Speaker 2: bit more about that, but before I do, I want
Speaker 2: to clarify. So I will be taught starting with JEDI,
Speaker 2: but I will also be talking about obi Wan, which
Speaker 2: is another Star Wars reference. It's another acronym, it doesn't
Speaker 2: really matter what it stands for. But basically, obi wan
Speaker 2: is an application that is specifically designed with the requirements
Speaker 2: of carbon monitoring in mind. So we're going to start
Speaker 2: with the Jedi mission and we're going to be going
Speaker 2: we're going to be phasing into the obi Wan tool.
Speaker 2: And I say phasing because obi wan uses observations from
Speaker 2: the Jedi lidar, it uses statistics built into Jedi, it
Speaker 2: uses carbon models built into Jedi, so it's really it's
Speaker 2: a subsidiary tool of the Jedi mission. We're going to
Speaker 2: start with the theory and measurements behind Jedi, and between
Speaker 2: this presentation and the next one there is a second
Speaker 2: version which you will see.
Speaker 3: We will get into how obi Wan helps us.
Speaker 2: Answer real questions in the field of carbon monitoring. So
Speaker 2: starting with Jedi. It is a NASA Earth Ventures instrument.
Speaker 2: It launched in twenty eighteen and became operational in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2: On the picture on the right there there's not actually
Speaker 2: a on it that says Jedi. I've added that, but
Speaker 2: that's basically what it looks like. It's the size of
Speaker 2: a refrigerator. It is a laser.
Speaker 4: There.
Speaker 2: Actually there are three lasers on Jedi, and they help
Speaker 2: us measure the basically the height of trees around the world,
Speaker 2: or at least in the latitudes that the International Space
Speaker 2: Station overpasses between fifty one degrees north and fifty one
Speaker 2: degrees south. There is another rset training that goes over
Speaker 2: more of the specifics of Jedi how to and focuses
Speaker 2: on how to get Jedi data. We're going to be
Speaker 2: talking today really about how Jedi makes inferences from those
Speaker 2: measurements related to how much biomass is in particular places.
Speaker 2: And that's on the way to talking about the Obi
Speaker 2: Wan tool. I should say that it became operational twenty nineteen,
Speaker 2: but it took one year nap between March twenty three
Speaker 2: and April twenty four. It has since resumed operations and
Speaker 2: the PI is rapped Dubai at the University of Maryland.
Speaker 2: I should also say that NASA very recently selected the
Speaker 2: Edge mission, which is similar to Jedi, except it's free flying.
Speaker 2: It will be free flying. It should launch around twenty thirty.
Speaker 2: NASA selected that through the Earth System's Explorer program. The
Speaker 2: pis there are at UCSD.
Speaker 3: And the University of Maryland.
Speaker 2: So the technologies that you're seeing here will be available
Speaker 2: into the future.
Speaker 3: Okay, so what does JEDI do.
Speaker 2: It really has three lasers, but those lasers are split
Speaker 2: and dithered in such a way that it really gives
Speaker 2: us eight tracks. As the International Space Station goes over
Speaker 2: an area, it's collecting eight tracks worth of.
Speaker 3: Height data.
Speaker 2: And as the mission has continued to go on, you
Speaker 2: can see that the sample is filling in. So it's
Speaker 2: not an imager. It is collecting footprints along tracks. And
Speaker 2: the tracks are not contiguous, they're interrupted. But so there
Speaker 2: are thirty meters footprints along all of those tracks that
Speaker 2: have been collected since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 3: And what do these footprints look like?
Speaker 2: As I said, they're about twenty five meters in diameter.
Speaker 2: And really what you get the main observable from JEDI
Speaker 2: is this representation of the vertical forest structure. So as
Speaker 2: laser energy comes down from the space station, it bounces
Speaker 2: off of the surface. Some of that energy bounces off
Speaker 2: the top of the canopy, some of it makes it
Speaker 2: all the way down to the ground. And you know,
Speaker 2: because we know the speed of light and how long
Speaker 2: it took different parts of that waveform to come back.
Speaker 3: We infer this waveform.
Speaker 2: The business end of the waveform is really when you
Speaker 2: quantize that to things that we can put into a
Speaker 2: biomass model. So relative height our H is basically the
Speaker 2: height above where we found the ground a particular percentage
Speaker 2: of the waveform's energy is returning. So our H one
Speaker 2: hundred is basically the top of the canopy. URH fifty
Speaker 2: is the height at which half of the stuff that
Speaker 2: light our energy is returning from. Half of the stuff
Speaker 2: is below and half of the stuff is above. And
Speaker 2: so basically we quantize the waveform into things, into these
Speaker 2: measures that we can put into a biomass model. There
Speaker 2: are a lot of jet well, there's four levels of
Speaker 2: Jedi products. It's not it's not a bewildering array of products.
Speaker 2: The level one two, especially the level one and two
Speaker 2: are are sort of more basic, uh physics oriented waveform properties.
Speaker 2: Level four is really where we're going to focus today.
Speaker 2: That Level four A is how much biomass for every
Speaker 2: footprint has a biomass estimate. So level four A is
Speaker 2: talking about how how we model using those relative height measures,
Speaker 2: how we model biomass. And Level four b is how
Speaker 2: we take the sample the Jedi gives us of those
Speaker 2: predicted biomass values, how we fill in the entire area
Speaker 2: for one kilometer grid cells. So that's really a sample
Speaker 2: survey sort of a process.
Speaker 3: And we.
Speaker 2: Very similar statistics to those used by the forest inventory
Speaker 2: that I actually work for.
Speaker 3: So let's just jump right in.
Speaker 2: How do we get our predictions for biomass at the
Speaker 2: footprint level. Basically, the Jedi Mission has asked cooperators from
Speaker 2: around the world for light our data that's collected directly
Speaker 2: over inventory plots where biomass has been measured on the ground,
Speaker 2: and throughout this presentation you will see references here it's
Speaker 2: Duncanson at All twenty twenty two to the source material
Speaker 2: if you want more details about the processes. But basically,
Speaker 2: what the Jedi Mission has done is simulate Jedi waveforms
Speaker 2: from the airborne light are and used the paired Jedi
Speaker 2: waveform and field data to make a model, a specific
Speaker 2: model for every continent, and every continent is split between
Speaker 2: plant functional types deciduous, evergreen, et cetera. So, and important
Speaker 2: for our purposes, where we're headed is estimating biomass and inference.
Speaker 2: Where we're headed is we are keeping the uncertainty that's
Speaker 2: associated with these models, and we won't get into exactly
Speaker 2: how that's stored, but there is an uncertainty stored with
Speaker 2: every model, and we use that in this next slide. Actually,
Speaker 2: so when we go to L four B JEDI L
Speaker 2: four B, that's the gridded biomass product, where we are
Speaker 2: inferring the mean biomass for every one kilometer grid cell.
Speaker 2: What we're doing here, I mean it looks like here
Speaker 2: we've got a sample, and that's exactly what JEDI gives us.
Speaker 2: So every one kilometer cell, not every one kilometer cells.
Speaker 2: Some one kilometer cells are unlucky, either because of the
Speaker 2: overpassed pattern of the space station or because they're perpetually cloudy.
Speaker 2: Some one kilometer grid cells don't have much of a sample,
Speaker 2: and those grid cells get a different algorithm, which I'll
Speaker 2: talk about in the next side. But for those cells,
Speaker 2: which is most cells that do have a good JEDI sample,
Speaker 2: really what we do is we use an estimator, a
Speaker 2: statistical estimator that estimates the mean biomass from all the
Speaker 2: predictions that are in that grid cell, and we also
Speaker 2: produce an estimate of uncertainty a standard error around the
Speaker 2: estimated mean. That is a function both of the model uncertainty.
Speaker 2: If you remember from the previous we saved a lot
Speaker 2: of not a lot. We saved the relevant model uncertainty information,
Speaker 2: so that gets propagated through this process and also a
Speaker 2: sampling uncertainty. As you can see, we're not measuring everything
Speaker 2: in that one kilometer grid cell, so this estimator Patterson
Speaker 2: at all uses propagates both sources of uncertainty to get
Speaker 2: a standard error for four our estimate of mean biomass
Speaker 2: in one kilometer grid cells around the world. So that's
Speaker 2: the L four B product. I mentioned that there are
Speaker 2: some L four B one kilometer grid cells that don't have,
Speaker 2: for whatever reason, enough.
Speaker 3: Enough Jedi measurements in there to.
Speaker 2: Do that process, so this is what we do in
Speaker 2: those cases.
Speaker 3: The green squares.
Speaker 2: Are field plots around the world and that are used
Speaker 2: by the Jedi team to make our biomass predictions. So
Speaker 2: we've already talked about the field to Jedi model. So
Speaker 2: there's one model, but then there's then we predict. We
Speaker 2: use Jedi's predictions for all the waveforms in a particular area.
Speaker 2: We're using currently we're using ten kilometer squares ten by
Speaker 2: ten kilometer squares, and we intersect those predictions of biomass
Speaker 2: with lance At time series information, So not just a
Speaker 2: single lance At image, but all of the available clear
Speaker 2: imagery for a lance AT pixel gets fit into this
Speaker 2: time series function, and we use properties of that function
Speaker 2: to make our prediction of biomass with a model that
Speaker 2: we calibrate with Jedi's predictions, so very local model. We're
Speaker 2: using Jedi predictions to predict a Lancet model.
Speaker 3: Okay, So, and we've talked about where that cheese.
Speaker 2: This is important for obi Wan because this really is
Speaker 2: the basis for how.
Speaker 3: Obi Wan works through time.
Speaker 2: And we'll come to that in just a moment, but
Speaker 2: before we do, i'd like to show you.
Speaker 3: What the L four B product looks like.
Speaker 2: You will be seeing a little bit later in an
Speaker 2: app that I will be walking through and that you
Speaker 2: will also have available to you. You will see that
Speaker 2: there are a lot of one kilometer grid cells in
Speaker 2: version two, which is what the app is seeing, that
Speaker 2: do not have an estimate. Version three, which has been
Speaker 2: submitted to the DAC and will be actually I think
Speaker 2: it is available currently, fills in all of those gaps with.
Speaker 3: The process that I just talked about.
Speaker 2: But basically every place in the world has a prediction
Speaker 2: at the one kilometer scale of biomass from JEDI, and
Speaker 2: there's also a corresponding standard error of that estimate map.
Speaker 2: So this process doesn't have to only apply to one
Speaker 2: kilometer grid cells.
Speaker 3: It can apply to entire countries.
Speaker 2: In this case, what we have done is pointed that
Speaker 2: process at sixty four thousand hectare hexagons that cover the
Speaker 2: United States, and in this paper we compared those estimates
Speaker 2: with estimates from FIA, that's the Forest Inventory, the part
Speaker 2: of the Forest Service that I work for, and really
Speaker 2: there's a pretty good match spatially, you know, spacially and
Speaker 2: looking at the scatterplot. So we'll talk a little bit
Speaker 2: more about validation with FIA, especially in the next presentation,
Speaker 2: but in general it lines up. And the important thing
Speaker 2: is that it doesn't have to be a one kilometer
Speaker 2: grid cell. It can be you know, any shape, and
Speaker 2: it can be multiple multiple patches too.
Speaker 3: So now we're.
Speaker 2: Getting into obi WAN, which is a tool for estimating
Speaker 2: biomass change, and change is an operative word in this
Speaker 2: slide because so far all we've talked about with Jedi
Speaker 2: is single point in time biomass. But we will see
Speaker 2: in the next version of this presentation, the next session
Speaker 2: of this presentation that practical carbon accounting.
Speaker 3: Really requires a view over time.
Speaker 2: And so obi Wan is using of the measurements, the
Speaker 2: statistics and the models that we've already talked about for Jedi,
Speaker 2: but pointing them directly for the purpose of estimating change. Okay,
Speaker 2: so you will remember this that this is sort of
Speaker 2: the alternate algorithm for predicting biomass for a single point
Speaker 2: in time for the one kilometer grid cells where there
Speaker 2: is not enough Jedi, not enough Jedi footprints directly in
Speaker 2: the one kilometer cell. So what we're doing there's two
Speaker 2: levels of model, one from the field to Jedi and
Speaker 2: then one fitted very locally at ten kilometer by ten
Speaker 2: kilometer area Jedi predictions to lance At imagery. And the
Speaker 2: nice thing is that lance At is consistently processed through time.
Speaker 2: And so what we do then is we can apply
Speaker 2: that lance At model not only to the present but
Speaker 2: to lance At imagery. And again it's lance At time
Speaker 2: series imagery going back in time to the mid eighties
Speaker 2: if we want to.
Speaker 3: So what we end up with is.
Speaker 2: A time series of predictions through the Lancet record. Lance
Speaker 2: Modern Lancet started in the mid eighties. The first lance
Speaker 2: At launched in nineteen seventy two. So what we are
Speaker 2: doing here in this slide, this is the country of Paraguay.
Speaker 2: We have fitted our models with JEDI in the current period,
Speaker 2: and then we are applying that lance AT model back
Speaker 2: in time. And what we see through time is that
Speaker 2: there's a lot of reduction of biomass, especially in the
Speaker 2: western part of fireway through this time period. Okay, so
Speaker 2: this is how we're getting basically, how we're getting estimates
Speaker 2: of change. So when we're talking about a company applying
Speaker 2: for carbon applying to be to sell carbon credits because
Speaker 2: of forest management, or we're talking about a country complying
Speaker 2: with its own commitments internationally in terms of mitigating climate
Speaker 2: change by managing forests in a way that stores more
Speaker 2: and more carbon, we really need a straightforward way of
Speaker 2: accounting for the uncertainty of this car of any carbon
Speaker 2: management credits that we may claim.
Speaker 3: And so.
Speaker 2: You might ask, we've got a time series of lance
Speaker 2: AT predictions, how do we track.
Speaker 3: The uncertainty of.
Speaker 2: The predicted change for a particular for an area that
Speaker 2: we care about, and in this slide, it looks like
Speaker 2: we care about a square. You know, it could be
Speaker 2: as I said earlier, it could be any shape, it
Speaker 2: could be multiple areas from across, from across the region.
Speaker 2: We do require that it be at least five hundred
Speaker 2: hectares because the statistics that we're using, some of the
Speaker 2: assumptions break down for smaller areas than that. But basically
Speaker 2: the top set is basically what I just showed you.
Speaker 2: We make two models feel to Jedi Jedi to Lancet.
Speaker 2: We apply the model through time, and let's say that
Speaker 2: we care about the change between nineteen ninety and twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: We get a prediction in ninety of ninety five, and
Speaker 2: thirty years later it's eighty tons per hectare, indicating there's
Speaker 2: a loss of fifteen.
Speaker 3: So what we.
Speaker 2: Actually do behind the scenes in obi Wan is change
Speaker 2: both of those models feel the Jedi Jedi to Lancet
Speaker 2: in ways that across a lot of iterations represent what
Speaker 2: we know about the uncertainty of those models.
Speaker 3: And we call that bootstrapping.
Speaker 2: And I'll talk a little bit about how we sort
Speaker 2: of jitter those models in a second. But basically we
Speaker 2: end up making a lot of different time series of predictions,
Speaker 2: and the first one indicated a loss of fifteen, the
Speaker 2: second one indicated a loss of thirteen, third a loss
Speaker 2: of twenty, and across a lot of these iterations or bootstraps,
Speaker 2: what we will end up with is a distribution of
Speaker 2: predictions and that's what you see on the right, and
Speaker 2: the mean of those predictions, that's what we return as
Speaker 2: an estimated mean, and the standard deviation around that mean
Speaker 2: is what we.
Speaker 3: Support as a standard error of our estimate.
Speaker 2: Just a little bit of detail about how we are
Speaker 2: jittering these models this you know too.
Speaker 3: Two models.
Speaker 2: The first one we have we have because the Jedi
Speaker 2: mission provides it. We have it's a linear model that
Speaker 2: goes from the field to field field biomass to Jedi
Speaker 2: biomass UH, and we have a parameter covariance matrix for
Speaker 2: for the parameters in that linear model. We can we
Speaker 2: j We jitter that model on that basis, on the
Speaker 2: basis of the uncertainty that that is implied by those parameters.
Speaker 2: And then we also I won't go into the details,
Speaker 2: but we also re sample the second level of model
Speaker 2: ah in in a way that gives us a lot
Speaker 2: of different time series that we need that we query
Speaker 2: to to return a predicted change and standard around that change.
Speaker 3: Okay, so here's sort of a.
Speaker 2: Red flag that is that may be on your mind,
Speaker 2: especially if you do a lot of remote sensing.
Speaker 3: So lansat imagery is optical imagery.
Speaker 2: And as forests grow, let's say they're growing from scratch,
Speaker 2: you know, from from an open field. In general, the
Speaker 2: more the forest expands, the greener the imagery gets until
Speaker 2: the canopy closes. And at that point, the stuff under
Speaker 2: the canopy continues to grow. The trees get taller, they
Speaker 2: put on more and more biomass. But there the imagery
Speaker 2: does not get a lot greener. There's some shadowing the changes.
Speaker 2: There's still is some signal there. We have shown that
Speaker 2: if we make our models very locally it helps, but
Speaker 2: it's still a problem. Basically, that problem manifests itself in
Speaker 2: our models. Overestimate low values of biomass and underestimate high
Speaker 2: values of biomass. So that's a bias right there. And then,
Speaker 2: especially when we're looking at change from either high biomass
Speaker 2: to low or in the opposite direction, we will systematically
Speaker 2: be underestimating that change.
Speaker 3: That's a problem.
Speaker 2: So what obi Wan does is very explicitly use calibration
Speaker 2: to address that problem. And we will be talking about
Speaker 2: two options for calibrating in the next session. The first
Speaker 2: one is using Jedi waveforms that we didn't use to
Speaker 2: make the lance At model, and the second is using
Speaker 2: inventory data that may be available in a particular country.
Speaker 2: Both of those basically what we do is we look
Speaker 2: at the predictions that we see in these time series
Speaker 2: and we develop a really simple calibration function that in essence,
Speaker 2: most of the time it pushes the high predictions upward
Speaker 2: and the low predictions downward, because you know, those are
Speaker 2: generally the what has to happen if we want to
Speaker 2: remove the biases that integrating that process into the process
Speaker 2: that I that I just mentioned is really simple and
Speaker 2: computationally it's very simple, and we'll see a little bit
Speaker 2: about that with so there's very little additional computing. I
Speaker 2: just want to make the point that and we'll come
Speaker 2: back to this in the next session, that there is
Speaker 2: calibration possible and in fact it is happening.
Speaker 3: Okay, So before we.
Speaker 2: Get to sort of a hands on activity that we
Speaker 2: in which we will be exploring.
Speaker 3: Jedi data.
Speaker 2: With a Googleer's Engine app. I just want to point
Speaker 2: out these resources. There is also, of course, the earlier
Speaker 2: R set trainings in this series which talked about light
Speaker 2: R in general and light R specifically from Jedi. Okay,
Speaker 2: so the hands on activity that we will be pursuing
Speaker 2: Before we get into it, we'll talk a little bit
Speaker 2: about what it is. We will be exploring the distribution
Speaker 2: of Jedi shots. You know what this when you look
Speaker 2: at Jedi data, how.
Speaker 3: Dense is it.
Speaker 2: And how does that density change from place to place.
Speaker 2: We'll be looking at what Jedi actually measures at each
Speaker 2: of its footprints.
Speaker 3: You will see very clearly that they.
Speaker 2: Line up in paths that echo the overpass pattern of
Speaker 2: this National Space Station. Lastly, we will be experimenting with
Speaker 2: the estimator that I mentioned earlier that propagates the uncertainty
Speaker 2: of the sampling, the model air and the sampling error.
Speaker 3: So I just want to point out that this.
Speaker 2: Is possible because Jedi data is stored on Google Earth Engine.
Speaker 2: Here is the thing that you would search for in
Speaker 2: the catalog, and here is the link to the Jedi
Speaker 2: app that we will be exploring. Now, Okay, so here
Speaker 2: we are. You have registered for Google Earth Engine. If
Speaker 2: you weren't already registered, you've clicked on the link, and
Speaker 2: this is a Google Earth Engine application that we built.
Speaker 2: Really it was Jijiang Yang who built this for this training.
Speaker 2: And what we're doing here is looking at a number
Speaker 2: of things. What I don't I think that you can
Speaker 2: see my cursor here. What we're looking at now is.
Speaker 3: Jedi L four B.
Speaker 2: Those are the statistical estimates at the one kilometer grid scale,
Speaker 2: so you know, just zooming in, you will see that
Speaker 2: there are places where there's no estimate. Those are places where,
Speaker 2: at least at the time of this version, which was
Speaker 2: version two of Jedi, there weren't enough Jedi footprints in
Speaker 2: there to make an estimate. So if you want to
Speaker 2: see imagery underneath what we're showing, you can just press
Speaker 2: the satellite button here, and I'm just zooming into a
Speaker 2: particular place. So these are the one kilometer estimates. I'm
Speaker 2: going to press this inspect pixels button and just clicking
Speaker 2: on a you know, a pixel at random. Pretty high
Speaker 2: biomass three hundred and fifty seven tons per hectare. We've
Speaker 2: got a standard air of ninety five tons per hectare.
Speaker 3: So this is actually fairly uncertain.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of variability in this because the standard
Speaker 2: error is maybe thirty percent of or actually it's yeah,
Speaker 2: well it's about thirty percent.
Speaker 3: That's a pretty high error.
Speaker 2: In addition to seeing so you can explore really this
Speaker 2: is sort of a tool for you to explore Jedi data.
Speaker 3: It's global.
Speaker 2: I'm focusing I think it's this is Alabama. But as
Speaker 2: you zoom in, in addition to these one kilometer estimates,
Speaker 2: you can.
Speaker 3: Choose the Jedi product that you would like to see.
Speaker 3: L two A that's a footprint level.
Speaker 2: So I'm just zooming in so that you can see
Speaker 2: the density of the thirty meter footprints. It's really pretty dense.
Speaker 2: So as we as we zoom in, you can see
Speaker 2: this looks brown.
Speaker 3: The forest here looks brown.
Speaker 2: I have a feeling that this is a sort of
Speaker 2: wintertime image.
Speaker 3: When I click.
Speaker 2: On one of those pixels. This L two A is
Speaker 2: the product that has those relative height values. So the
Speaker 2: top of the canopy is about thirty one meters tall.
Speaker 2: For the for the footprint that I clicked on fifty
Speaker 2: that is sort of the midpoint of the canopy. Stuff
Speaker 2: that intersects that intercepts Jedi is about nine meters, so
Speaker 2: there's a pretty far distance between the midpoint of all
Speaker 2: the all the photosynthetic material in the top. There is
Speaker 2: also this L two B product that's also a footprint
Speaker 2: level product. It is the predicted predicted can it be
Speaker 2: cover for a particular waveform? And this one is showing
Speaker 2: about point nine can it be covers? That really tells
Speaker 2: me this is not brown because it is.
Speaker 3: Barren.
Speaker 2: Is brown because this is a wintertime high resolution image.
Speaker 2: If you want to see what's under there, you can
Speaker 2: this slider bar opacity can make this well our Jedi
Speaker 2: data invisible for a moment. I'm just going to switch
Speaker 2: over to another instance.
Speaker 3: This is on the coast of California.
Speaker 2: I'm going here because the redwoods are here, they're very
Speaker 2: they have very you know, tall heights obviously, so I'm
Speaker 2: just going to zoom into, you know, a place here
Speaker 2: and instead of looking at the one kilometer estimates, I'm
Speaker 2: going to look at the the Jedi footprints. You can
Speaker 2: see that there's you know, there are i think twenty
Speaker 2: billion high quality Jedi shots around the world currently. I'm
Speaker 2: going to display them against forest data. So these are
Speaker 2: I mean, the redwoods are famous for being tall. Obviously,
Speaker 2: I'm going to press inspect pixel that's here, I get
Speaker 2: a cross hair. I'm going to zoom in, making sure
Speaker 2: that I hit the middle of this pixel. So we're
Speaker 2: predicting almost five hundred tons of biomass per heck.
Speaker 3: There, that's a lot of biomass.
Speaker 2: You can find some that are over a thousand tons.
Speaker 2: Keep in mind that these footprint level predictions are not
Speaker 2: necessarily representative of the whole hectare twenty five meters that
Speaker 2: might just fall luckily or unluckily by chance on one
Speaker 2: tall tree, and a lot of that thirty meters might
Speaker 2: be you know, just one column of wood. So for
Speaker 2: that small area, the density is over one thousand tons
Speaker 2: per hectare. Over the whole one kilometer or even larger area,
Speaker 2: you know, it's it's going to be some footprints that
Speaker 2: fall in between trees. This is the last thing I
Speaker 2: want to show you here. For an area that you
Speaker 2: care about, this panel over here polygon rectangle delete analyze
Speaker 2: this access is the statistical estimator that I talked about
Speaker 2: earlier that propagates the uncertainty both from the model and
Speaker 2: from the sample. And so basically I'm just drawing a pixel,
Speaker 2: and I could draw several pixels, not pixels, polygons, I
Speaker 2: could draw several of them. When I have the place
Speaker 2: that I care about, I can press the analyzed button,
Speaker 2: and over here this panel tells us that the area
Speaker 2: is six hundred and twenty seven hectares. It's estimating three
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty five tons per hectare. That's megagrams per hectare.
Speaker 2: It gives us the standard error this one. It's a pretty.
Speaker 3: Low standard error.
Speaker 2: The forest here, I was careful to not include a
Speaker 2: bunch of different.
Speaker 3: Forest.
Speaker 2: If it was really various, the standard error would be higher.
Speaker 2: There's some other information metion here. There are fifty three clusters,
Speaker 2: so each one of these lines we treat as a
Speaker 2: cluster sample. And across those fifty three clusters there's fourteen
Speaker 2: hundred shots. So the last thing I want to talk about,
Speaker 2: because this leads into the next session, is that we
Speaker 2: have built into this app a little button that says,
Speaker 2: obi Wan report we care about for whatever reason, we
Speaker 2: care about this place, and we built into this app
Speaker 2: something that gives some background and records at least what
Speaker 2: today our estimate for that area was. This could be
Speaker 2: built into any kind of data system you want. It
Speaker 2: could look however you want. We'll talk about that in
Speaker 2: the next session. I just want to point out that
Speaker 2: even in this fairly simple app, we have options for
Speaker 2: documenting the out the outputs.
Speaker 3: That that our estimators are using.
Speaker 2: This app will be live for the foreseeable future for
Speaker 2: the purpose of just letting you explore around the world
Speaker 2: the JEDI data and the capacity for estimating mean biomass
Speaker 2: that is that is built into obi wan.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 2: So now we will hand this over to Erica who
Speaker 2: will lead the Q and a portion of this presentation,
Speaker 2: and as I said earlier, a lot of what we
Speaker 2: have hinted at in terms of carbon monitoring, we will
Speaker 2: explicitly cover in the second session.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Sean. And next we will do
Speaker 1: a brief summary of the key concepts that were presented
Speaker 1: during this session. So let's quickly review the key concepts
Speaker 1: for this session. JEDI is a sensor on the International
Speaker 1: Space Station. It is an active sensor that measures the
Speaker 1: distance by timing how long a laser pulse takes to
Speaker 1: return back to the sensor, and this provides detailed information
Speaker 1: about elevation canopy heights and three the three dimensional structure
Speaker 1: of the vegetation. JEDI is a full waveform lightar. Unlike
Speaker 1: discrete return systems, this sensor records the complete energy profile
Speaker 1: of each pulse, which captures the entire vertical distribution of
Speaker 1: vegetation within Jedi's twenty five meter diameter footprint and this
Speaker 1: as a result, this provides a much richer structural information,
Speaker 1: so each footprint provides the complete vertical structure of the canopy.
Speaker 1: And given the as I mentioned, JEDI is on the
Speaker 1: International Space Station, it doesn't have a regular orbit, so
Speaker 1: it covers latitudes between plus and minus fifty one degrees
Speaker 1: and produces both footprint level data at twenty five meters
Speaker 1: and gridded products at one kilometer resolutions. The relative heights
Speaker 1: are a property of the waveform that can be plugged
Speaker 1: into a biomass model, and the Level four A is
Speaker 1: a biomass density predicted for individual footprints. Level four B
Speaker 1: are statistical estimates of mean biomass for a one kilometer
Speaker 1: grid cell using JEDI sample of Level four A biomass predictions.
Speaker 1: NOWBI one is a forest canopy analysis application that uses
Speaker 1: JEDI lighter observations together with forced inventory data to estimate
Speaker 1: biomass and monitor changes in forest carbon over time. JEDI
Speaker 1: uses sampling theory to estimate mean biomass and uncertainty. Looking
Speaker 1: ahead to Session two, participants will be able to identify
Speaker 1: key concepts in carbon monitoring, including system requirements, decision making needs,
Speaker 1: and the concept of additionality. They'll be able to recognize
Speaker 1: or you'll be able to recognize how obi Wan estimates
Speaker 1: biomass change, including its use of JEDI lass time series
Speaker 1: and under the underlying data infrastructure. Participants will be able
Speaker 1: to evaluate uncertainty and validation using Forest service inventory data
Speaker 1: to assess the accuracy and precision of obi wan change estimates.
Speaker 1: Access open source ob wan API to generate estimates of
Speaker 1: biomass change and areas of interest, and apply obi Wan
Speaker 1: tools and APIs to visualize biomass change and compare carbon
Speaker 1: gains against different climate scenarios. Homework and certificates. There is
Speaker 1: one homework assignment with this training. It will open on
Speaker 1: May twenty eighth, that's the next at the end of
Speaker 1: the next training or the next session next Thursday, and
Speaker 1: you can access the homework from the training web page.
Speaker 1: The Answers must be submitted via Google forms and the
Speaker 1: homework is due by June eighteenth. The certificate of completion
Speaker 1: will be given to those participants who attend both live
Speaker 1: webinars and attendance is recorded automatically. Participants complete the homework
Speaker 1: assignment by the deadline and please expect to receive the
Speaker 1: certificate via email approximately two months after completion of the training.
Speaker 1: If you have any questions about the material that was
Speaker 1: presented to they, please feel free to contact doctor Sean
Speaker 1: Heally through the email that you see here. We've reached
Speaker 1: the end of today's session, Thank you very much to
Speaker 1: doctor Heally, and we are now ready to start the
Speaker 1: Q and A session.
Speaker 5: Right, Thanks again, thanks very really thanks.
Speaker 6: Eric, tag team and one to the spreaders and tag
Speaker 6: team in here with with Erica because she has to
Speaker 6: step out, So I'll be leading ast in the quanization
Speaker 6: here and thanks Bred for putting in there on the
Speaker 6: on the spring, we can go steck to the to
Speaker 6: the first question and and then Sean, I'll be I
Speaker 6: read the question and then feelfree to provide the answer
Speaker 6: to it. So the first question is are we and
Speaker 6: some of this questions getting really early in the during
Speaker 6: the webinars, So I'm assuming that maybe maybe you.
Speaker 5: Already answered some of them uh D during your clop.
Speaker 5: But but the first one says, are we measuring bio
Speaker 5: must change or are we using a sophisticated model based approximation?
Speaker 3: H Thanks for the question.
Speaker 2: The answer is, I guess if you give me a
Speaker 2: choice between those two things, it's a sophisticated model based approximation.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's almost impossible to measure directly measure you know,
Speaker 2: a lot of trees over a large area, so there's
Speaker 2: there probably.
Speaker 3: Is no direct measurement of biomass change, but there is.
Speaker 3: Uh what.
Speaker 2: What we're using is a model based mode of inference
Speaker 2: where we are accounting for uncertainty that is built into
Speaker 2: our models. We're also accounting for uncertainty of the introduced
Speaker 2: by the fact that Jedi is only sampling the landscape
Speaker 2: and not not collecting an image over the entire population.
Speaker 2: So the answer, the answer that I put there is
Speaker 2: that it's you know, it's a model based estimation paradigm,
Speaker 2: and the uncertainties that we produce are our best understanding
Speaker 2: of how the errors in our models propagate to the
Speaker 2: final answer of biomass change.
Speaker 5: Great, thanks Chub. Question number two, it'sa and space based
Speaker 5: biomass estimates be accurate and reliable enough to support high
Speaker 5: stakes carbone decision making. And if not, what monitor approaches
Speaker 5: would be more appropriate in cases? What comprehensive if ground
Speaker 5: based monitoring is not peaceable, can space based biomass estimation
Speaker 5: and service practical do not be complimentary approach? And to
Speaker 5: what I explain the approach is practically upblet long question there,
Speaker 5: but jump in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, two great questions right out of the gate. You know,
Speaker 2: I think that the gold standard is having a field
Speaker 2: based inventory, uh that goes back in time and is
Speaker 2: that is consistently and frequently measured. That is pretty expensive,
Speaker 2: especially if you know you don't have an inventory for
Speaker 2: anything else. It's it's hard to imagine, you know, carbon
Speaker 2: credits paying for that kind of that kind of inventory
Speaker 2: to be collected all the time. So uh, in in
Speaker 2: lieu of that, in many places, we don't have any
Speaker 2: forest inventory. And I believe that what we're talking about
Speaker 2: is the best estimate that we can get from remote
Speaker 2: sensing in many parts of the world, and I think
Speaker 2: you will UH in the next presentation. I believe that
Speaker 2: in many places that is not good enough. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's not good it's you know, there are there are
Speaker 2: definitely biases that creep in. So I although I would
Speaker 2: say it's the best we have and maybe the best
Speaker 2: available answer in a lot of cases. There we know
Speaker 2: that there are biases and that that will be covered
Speaker 2: in the next the next presentation. I would say, though,
Speaker 2: and you also see this in the next presentation, that
Speaker 2: when we in the United States we're using remeasured data
Speaker 2: from the Forest Inventory and Analysis Unit of the Forest
Speaker 2: Service to calibrate these estimates, that it's getting much closer
Speaker 2: to the truth. And I think, you know, in this country,
Speaker 2: we are entering a space where this can be used
Speaker 2: for decision support. You know that we we provide probabilistic
Speaker 2: estimates of uncertainty, which all always includes the possibility that
Speaker 2: you know, there's you know, there's some bias in there
Speaker 2: or some errors in there. But I do believe in
Speaker 2: this country, especially that in the United States, UH, that
Speaker 2: there is room for using what we're talking about in
Speaker 2: in operational carbon accounting.
Speaker 5: Excellent. Big question number three, UH, should temporary force carbon
Speaker 5: storage be treated as like we willant to permanent fossil
Speaker 5: free or emission reductions.
Speaker 2: Well, uh, you know, I I think that the answer
Speaker 2: depends on the time frame of mitigation that we're talking about.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 3: A lot of.
Speaker 2: People consider the next few decades as you know, the
Speaker 2: the real uh you know tip place where tipping points
Speaker 2: will or will not be passed.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: And uh, you know, these upcoming decks decades probably will
Speaker 2: be you know, see the peak of carbon emissions, hopefully.
Speaker 3: And you know a lot of people say that.
Speaker 2: Mitigation in the near future is more important than mitigation
Speaker 2: four hundred years from now. I don't have a position
Speaker 2: on that, but I do recognize what the questionnaire is asking. Like,
Speaker 2: mitigation is not in forest carbon storage, it's not permanent.
Speaker 2: You know, disturbances are part of life in forest ecosystems.
Speaker 2: So that question is more of a general forest climate
Speaker 2: change mitigation question. So I guess the answer to that
Speaker 2: is it depends on your time frame.
Speaker 5: Okay, Question number four, is ourh fifty half the elevation
Speaker 5: of our age one hundred or half the biomass of
Speaker 5: the column?
Speaker 3: So the answer is it's neither.
Speaker 2: As the light from the laser passes from above and
Speaker 2: eventually bounces off of the ground, some of that is
Speaker 2: intercepted by the very top of the canopy, some of
Speaker 2: it's intercepted by the branches and leaves at different levels
Speaker 2: of the canopy. And RH fifty is really a measure
Speaker 2: of sort of the midpoint of the density of the
Speaker 2: stuff that the light passes through and bounces back from
Speaker 2: on its way to the ground. So if you think
Speaker 2: of a profile, and I showed a profile of the waveform,
Speaker 2: that's the point at which half of the energy is
Speaker 2: returning has already returned back. So yeah, it's really a
Speaker 2: measure of the waveform. And you know, depending on the
Speaker 2: distribution of canopy material, that could be half half of
Speaker 2: the height of the very top, or it might be
Speaker 2: taller than that or shorter than that, just depending on
Speaker 2: how that material is distributed.
Speaker 4: Vertically interesting, Okay, question number five Is it possible to
Speaker 4: asswer the lighter data using the duncans on at all
Speaker 4: vapor or is it open source?
Speaker 2: In general, all NASA sponsored research is open source data. However,
Speaker 2: the Jedi Mission is collaborating with about one hundred or
Speaker 2: maybe it's more by now providers from around the world
Speaker 2: who have put a lot of work into surveying measuring
Speaker 2: trees and collecting light our data over those trees. So
Speaker 2: that's proprietary information in many cases shared you know, through goodwill.
Speaker 2: But part of that goodwill is also about shaped with
Speaker 2: agreements protecting against sharing. So as much as the mission
Speaker 2: would like to share that data, it has to respect
Speaker 2: the providers of that data and it does not share it.
Speaker 5: Hey. Number six, how do you see the potential of
Speaker 5: incorporating information from Centinel or higher resolution satellites in addition
Speaker 5: to the last model?
Speaker 2: Well, Sentinel too is that's sort of the sensor I
Speaker 2: addressed in my answer here, that's a fairly easy one.
Speaker 2: NASA provides harmonized lance at Sentinel data set.
Speaker 3: I think that globally.
Speaker 2: It may only go back to twenty eighteen, but basically
Speaker 2: they make the two sensors sort of interoperable and that
Speaker 2: would be easy to integrate.
Speaker 3: We have not done that because.
Speaker 2: The stuff that I was talking about today, you know,
Speaker 2: we wanted to go back to two thousand and Sentinel
Speaker 2: wasn't available at that time. But all of these methods
Speaker 2: could be adapted. We haven't done it, but they could
Speaker 2: be adapted to other well, to wall sources of imagery.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 5: Number seven here, how do I use Landsat imagery with
Speaker 5: Jeri data. Which software can I used to do this?
Speaker 5: Or can I use different coal barriers from landsids such
Speaker 5: as m dB I e b I. Yes, and additionally
Speaker 5: kind of a similar other questions are US addresses it's
Speaker 5: possible to use sending A one or two instead of
Speaker 5: lanserts for biomass estimation.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll address I just addressed that one. But you
Speaker 3: know what software would you use?
Speaker 2: I mean, you could use a lot of different kinds
Speaker 2: of software, but it would be easy on Google Earth Engine.
Speaker 2: I think that I mentioned that Google is storing the
Speaker 2: Jedi data set as an asset. It's very easy to
Speaker 2: use and it's US also stores lands At and Sentinel
Speaker 2: and other sources, so fusion with other data sources.
Speaker 3: One easy answer would be Google Earth Engine.
Speaker 5: Sober okay. Number eight. Would the bootstrapping time series you
Speaker 5: mentioned be similar to performing multiple simulations like Carlo simulation?
Speaker 2: The answer is yes. There's a stochastic element in both
Speaker 2: of those. I would say that the bootstrapping that we
Speaker 2: are doing, we're bootstrapping models either Field to Jedi or
Speaker 2: Jedi to lance At or both. And that's a narrower
Speaker 2: term and accounts for just the uncertainty involved with those models.
Speaker 2: Monte Carlo simulation would allow you to incorporate variability from
Speaker 2: other sources also, so I see Monte Carlo simulations as
Speaker 2: sort of a broader class of stochastic simulations.
Speaker 5: Okay, let's do the next couple of questions and and then,
Speaker 5: just for the benefit of the audience, remember that eventually
Speaker 5: all the answers will come up in the in the
Speaker 5: Q and a document uh several days in in a
Speaker 5: couple of days a week max. Okay. Question nine is
Speaker 5: estimating biomasses in Jedi applicable and efficient in drylands or grasslands.
Speaker 2: I I have not personally worked a lot with grasslands.
Speaker 2: I believe that Jedi's waveforms are.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure they're great for grasslands, to be honest
Speaker 3: with you.
Speaker 2: And and but in dry land forest, I would think
Speaker 2: that the measurements are are you know, perfectly reasonable to use.
Speaker 2: We have not tested obi wan so obi Wan brings
Speaker 2: in the element of modeling Jedi to landsat I'm not
Speaker 2: sure how well we do in dry land forest. We
Speaker 2: have not yet tested or validated that in dry land
Speaker 2: forces specifically. But as I say here, I think we
Speaker 2: do need to do that. So it's kind of an
Speaker 2: incomplete answer, but that's that's what I know so far.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'd be interested to see how it behaves. All right,
Speaker 5: Question number ten, I think you mentioned that the assumptions
Speaker 5: are going to little biomass estimations breakdown for areas less
Speaker 5: than five hund there? Did I hear that correctly? If so,
Speaker 5: can you speak a little more about that.
Speaker 2: Yes, So, we we're working with model based inference, and
Speaker 2: there is a component of model based inference that involves
Speaker 2: spatial auto correlation of the errors in our models. And uh,
Speaker 2: that is relevant at at very fine scales that we
Speaker 2: and we do not account for that uncertainty, so you know,
Speaker 2: at finer scale, at very fine scales, Uh, you know,
Speaker 2: we simply you know, given the assumptions of our of
Speaker 2: our method, we don't trust those estimates at very fine scales.
Speaker 2: So that's why we recommend at least five hundred hectares
Speaker 2: M makes sense?
Speaker 5: Okay, Yeah, we're gonna We're gonna stop here. And but again,
Speaker 5: as I mentioned with the and a document will eventually
Speaker 5: be available for our participants, uh in the in the
Speaker 5: training web page. Thanks again, Sean and your team for
Speaker 5: for helping with this and for all that valuable information.
Speaker 5: And yes we'll see everyone in Session two next week
Speaker 5: and next Thursday. To have a great day all, and
Speaker 5: we'll see you on Thursday.
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